By: Alex Tang
During the early hours of June 6, 2023, the Kakhovka Dam on the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast, Ukraine was destroyed. Now, the evidence shows that Russia was the likely culprit.
Russia and Ukraine have blamed each other for the destruction of the dam, which stands out for many reasons. Firstly, flooding from the dam breach displaced thousands of people.
Secondly, the Kakhovka reservoir was vital for irrigating farmland considered the breadbasket of Europe. The food supplies of millions of people are at risk because of the destruction of the dam. Thirdly, many wildlife habitats were flooded. According to USA Today, 45 people have died as of June 18.
During the time before the breach, the dam had already been damaged by war. Ukrainian HIMARS strikes had damaged part of the road on the dam, and retreating Russian troops had blown up another section. On April 23, 2023, a small part of the road on the dam collapsed, possibly due to erosion. Additionally, the cranes that regulate water flow through the dam had not been moved since mid-November to account for the seasonal water level. This allowed water to flow uncontrolled through the spill gates. Because of this, some people theorize that the dam has collapsed because of the damage.
However, according to experts that The New York Times spoke to, the dam could endure the damage, unless the concrete block it was built on was low quality and prone to deteriorate, or the soil was much softer than originally planned. According to Gregory B. Baecher, an engineering professor at the University of Maryland and a member of the National Academy of Engineers, it was possible but highly unlikely that the pressure from the water flowing through the gates had caused the dam to fail. He noted that the dam had built-in structures to prevent such failures, like a concrete “apron” on the riverbed directly downstream of the dam.
Additionally, an outside attack on the dam is a possible explanation, but it would have accuracy limitations and would not deliver enough force to breach the dam. According to Ihor Strelets, an engineer who served as the Deputy Head of Water Resources for the Dnipro River from 2005 until 2018, the dam was built during the Cold War and was designed to withstand almost any kind of external attack.
The Kakhovka Dam was built on a giant concrete block. In this block is a passageway. It was most likely in the passageway, accessible from the dam’s machine room, that Russian operatives planted an explosive charge that destroyed the dam. In a video obtained by the Associated Press from Ukraine’s Prosecutor General Office, the top of the concrete foundation of the dam is gone, meaning that the dam had suffered structural damage.
“If your objective is to destroy the dam itself, a large explosion would be required,” said Michael W. West, a geotechnical engineer and expert in dam safety and failure analysis, who is a retired principal at the engineering firm Wiss, Janney, Elstner. “The gallery is an ideal place to put that explosive charge.”
Using the passageway could be useful for hiding one’s tracks. According to Mr. Strelets, the passageway’s two entrances were in the machine room and a building on the side of the dam. It would allow the dam to be rigged outside of the view of aircraft, spy satellites, and witnesses on the ground.
Additionally, sensors in Romania and Ukraine picked up seismic signals at 2:35 a.m. and 2:54 a.m. According to Ben Dando, a seismologist at Norsar, a Norwegian organization that specializes in seismology and seismic monitoring, they were consistent with an explosion. A US spy satellite also picked up an infrared signal consistent with the heat of an explosion shortly before the dam collapsed. According to a senior US military official, the US government has ruled out an external attack on the dam and now thinks that an internal explosion was caused by Russian operatives.
Mr. Strelets has said that he also thinks that an explosion in the passageway destroyed the dam. “I do not want my theory to be correct,” he said. A large explosion in the passageway might mean the total loss of the dam. “But that is the only explanation,” he added.
Sources:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/06/16/world/europe/ukraine-kakhovka-dam-collapse.html
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2023/06/18/ukraine-russia-war-live-updates/70334392007/