By: Tristan Sun

The unrelenting succession of death and unrest facing Texas has soured citizens’ views of Gov. Greg Abbott and given Beto O’Rourke his best odds since the 1990s, when Democrats last held the office.

After one of the deadliest school shootings in U.S. history, a newly revived 1920s law on abortion, and an electrical grid which failed in freezing cold, polls show that the single-digit election is tightening. Incumbent Mr. Abbott’s Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke is now raising more cash than Mr. Abbott – 27.6 million to 24.9 million – in a race likely to be among the most expensive of 2022.

“We’re seeing a renewed fighting spirit,” said James Talarico, a Democratic state representative. Abruptly, improbably, Texas Democrats are beginning to hope – like they have in many recent years – that maybe this could be the year.

Nevertheless, the winds of national discontent are whipping in the opposite direction. Unlike during Beto’s senate run in 2018, it is now Republicans poised to harness the animus towards the White House and make gains in state races.

But in recent weeks there has been a noticeable shift in Texas. “Dobbs at the margins has hurt Republicans in Texas. Uvalde at the margins has hurt Republicans in Texas. The grid has hurt Republicans in Texas,” said Mark P. Jones, a professor of political science at Rice University. “Biden and inflation have been their saving grace.”

Additionally, Hispanic women, a group of people that Republicans have been fighting to win away from Democrats, seem dissatisfied. Like many of O’Rourke’s supporters, gun control was a top concern among Hispanic women, but not among Abbott’s supporters.

A poll conducted by the University of Texas at Austin showed 59 percent of respondents thought the state was on the “wrong track–” the largest share in the poll’s history. Another poll conducted by Quinnipiac University showed a growing percentage of voters in favor of stricter gun laws and found Mr. O’Rourke within 5 percentage points of the governor.

Contrasting opinions were voiced at Mr. Abbott’s conference call earlier this month. “We’re straight on track, where we want to be,” said Dave Carney, strategist of Mr. Abbott’s campaign. He added that their strategy will involve associating Mr. O’Rourke with Mr. Biden. “He’s going to be reliving the spectacular disaster of running for president and all the things he said.”

It’s not clear how long the effect on the Texas electorate will last. Inflation remains the primary concern for many voters, including Ahmad Sadozai. “I love this country,” said Mr. Sadozai, who was drawn from Afghanistan by the allure of a middle-class lifestyle. He did not have a preferred candidate for governor but added that “They need to raise the salaries.”