By: Ben  Xu

July 1, 2024 – Hurricane Beryl entered the Caribbean Islands. The top European weather forecasting company predicted the hurricane would continue westward and smash into Mexico. AI experiments for weather forecasting created a different predicted trajectory that curved upward and hit Texas. July 8, 2024 – Hurricane Beryl smashed into Texas, killing at least 36 people along the way. AI was correct.

The AI machine, called GraphCast, was created in London by DeepMind, a Google Company. GraphCast is a fast and accurate weather forecaster capable of creating a 10-day weather forecast in just seconds. Since AI is available on desktop computers, more weather forecasts are becoming super accessible. Unlike the supercomputers in many companies, AI weather forecast machines are very cheap. Maria Molina, a meteorologist at the University of Maryland who studies AI programs for extreme weather prediction, said, “It’s very, very exciting to know we can generate global predictions that are skillful, really cheaply.”

Extreme weather forecasting can be difficult because of the many factors involved. Due to the countless patterns, the results of these weather disasters are wildly unpredictable. So, GraphCast approached this problem with a solution. Instead of using complicated calculations, they used Machine Learning, which is the key to the ongoing AI revolution. Machine Learning is the idea of mimicking how humans learn. As a result of this modeling, GraphCast, like all AI, would have great pattern recognition and excel in weather forecasting. First, however, GraphCast has to learn about observations of global weather. Lasting around 4 decades, GraphCast was trained on various weather patterns.

With this skill, GraphCast surpassed other companies in weather forecasting. Weather Forecasting’s accuracy has finally improved, aiding the lives of humanity’s future. Rémi Lam, GraphCast’s leading scientist, said, “If you know where a cyclone is going, that’s quite important. It’s important for saving lives.” Dr. Lam knows that when weather forecasting is enhanced, a new future appears.

Sources
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/07/29/science/ai-weather-forecast-hurricane.html
https://www.science.org/content/article/ai-churns-out-lightning-fast-forecasts-good-weather-agencies