By: Andrew Lu

U.S. politics has shifted back and forth from the Democratic to Republican Party, with both struggling to secure dominance. In Texas, we’d think that Republicans could effortlessly dominate – but Beto O’Rourke (Democrat) is putting on a ferocious head-to-head fight with the current Texas Governor, Greg Abbott (Republican).

Texas has not had a Democrat governor since 1990 – more than three decades ago! But Mr. O’Rourke might change that.

Now, why is the election so fierce? School mass shootings – the one that killed nineteen students and two teachers, specifically. Ban of abortion rights – possibly deadly to many pregnant women with cancer. The U.S.’s worst case of migrant death in history. A power shortage due to extreme cold – at least cold in Texas – followed by sweltering heat.

This is damaging Mr. Abbott’s reputation. And this is why Mr. O’Rourke is stepping at this crucial time to run for governor.

“Dobbs at the margins has hurt Republicans in Texas. Uvalde, at the margins, has hurt Republicans in Texas. The [power] grid has hurt Republicans in Texas,” said Mark P. Jones, a professor of political science at Rice University (downtown Houston), who helped conduct one recent poll. “Biden and inflation have been their saving grace.”

Professor Jones mentioned that most poll voters didn’t rank gun and abortion laws as their top priorities, but it could help O’Rourke energize his supporters.

Polls here (like the one Professor Jones conducted) show that this match may be a single-digit contest – both sides varying by just a few percent. For the Democrats, it’s good news that Mr. O’Rourke has raised more election money than Mr. Abbott. Currently, Mr. O’Rourke stands at $27.6 million to Mr. Abbott’s $24.9 million. This is considered the most expensive race in 2022 for one of the biggest states in the U.S.

Other polls, like one conducted by the University of Texas at Austin, mention that 59% of voters voted that Texas was on the “wrong track”, which is significantly higher than past polls. The poll conducted by Quinnipiac University said that O’Rourke is less than 5% away from Abbott, tightening the gap between the two parties.

Unexpectedly, Texas Democrats are here to try again – like in past elections – to see if they could turn this red state blue.

“It seems like some of the worst things that are happening in this country have their roots in Texas,” said James Talarico, a Democratic state representative from north of Austin. “We’re seeing a renewed fighting spirit.”

While the Democrats might win, the Republicans aren’t giving up without a fight. Both sides see a chance to win the state before the other party does, but both wouldn’t be strong enough to sweep the other party away.

Democrats could win big in Texas – if Mr. O’Rourke does well. But unfortunately, Democrats nationally are in bad shape. President Biden doesn’t have a very good approval rating due to inflation. This is surprisingly different from four years ago. But both parties are fighting a tug of war, and soon, one will have to give.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/24/us/texas-governor-campaign-abbott-orourke.html