By Celina Yin
On July 21, 2021, researchers from the Covid-19 Scenario Modeling Hub came up with new projections to track the Delta Variant because it is highly contagious.
“What’s going on in the country with the virus is matching our most pessimistic scenarios,” says epidemiologist Justin Lessler from University of North Carolina. “I think it’s a big call for caution,” he says. The researchers from the Modeling Hub used 10 mathematical models from other academic teams to create a projection that offers four scenarios, all based on how many people of the population in the area are vaccinated, and how quickly the delta variant spreads. The most likely scenario is that the United States reaches 70% vaccination among people who are able to get it, and the delta variant is 60% more spreadable.
The researchers predict that there will be a surge of cases and deaths in mid-October. In the most likely scenario, the peak in October will be around 60,000 cases and about 850 deaths every day. The worst thing that could happen in the most likely scenario is 240,000 people getting infected and 4,000 people dying each day in mid-October. But this might not happen, because the scenarios all depend on factors, such as vaccination rates and safety precautions. By January 2022, the scenario shows the death rate coming down to the current level, which is around 300 per day. “We’re not going to be able to land the plane without turbulence,” said William Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard School of Public Health.
The Covid-19 Scenario Modeling Hub provided guidance to the government to encourage that more people should get vaccinated so we can stop the delta variant.
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