By: Ray Zhao

It’s early on June 6 in Ukraine when a large explosion rocks the area around the Kakhovka dam between 2:15 and 3:00. While the locals are no strangers to such sounds, something about this is different. At 2:35 a.m. and 2:54 a.m., seismic sensors in Ukraine and Romania detect telltale signs of large explosions. And just before the dam collapsed, American satellites capture infrared heat signals from it.

As dawn rose, water began pouring out from behind the severely damaged dam. Water flooded many areas downstream, including Kherson, a major city occupied by the Russian army. Evidence is mounting that the dam was blown up by Russia.

The hydroelectric Kakhovka dam, located on the Dnipro River, is important for agriculture in the region. Its destruction may cause large increases in food prices and the destruction of an already unstable ecosystem downstream. It may worsen the disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine war.

While Ukraine and Russia blame each other for the dam collapse, it is worth noting that underlying damage dealt to the bridge during the 16-month Russia-Ukraine conflict may have caused the issue. Russia has taken this as an opportunity to deny responsibility for the collapse.

But a plethora of new information from multiple creditable sources, including specialists, engineers, and analysts, suggests otherwise. Given the seismic activity and satellite detections of explosions in the area, it is most likely that the dam was blown up from an interior passageway.

And while experts warn that only a full examination of the dam after water levels have receded will be able to show what happened, many engineers and specialists say an internal explosion was likely. Ihor Strelets, an engineer who was familiar with dam as a water resource director, said it was built to withstand any external attacks. An internal explosion would be “the only explanation,” he said.

That is likely, given that the project was completed during the Cold War. And since it was built in Soviet-controlled Ukraine, Moscow still has detailed information about the dam.

New video that surfaced this week shows that the underlying concrete foundation was severely damaged, and even missing in some places. This would almost certainly point to an internal explosion.

As for the company operating the dam, Ukrhydroenergo? It said in a statement that “Russian forces made an internal explosion” that “brought about uncontrolled release of water from the reservoir and disastrous increase of water level in the downstream.”